出口行業入冬 東莞企業感受寒意
隨
著全球各國對中國出口產品的需求放緩﹐黃四也開始勒緊褲腰帶。黃四是中國南方東莞市一家羊毛衫制衣廠的經理﹐他說訂單與一年前相比減少了約50%。去年﹐有成堆的成品羊毛衫等待裝船﹐倉庫里都放不下。而如今﹐員工說﹐倉庫有一半是空的。黃四說﹐他原有150名工人﹐現已被迫裁掉了三分之一。
黃四在東莞市裕和制衣有限公司四層樓的工廠里說﹐這是我們1997年投產以來最困難的一年。
在中國造產品全球需求放緩之際﹐東莞工廠經理的困難讓外界得以一窺這個世界第二大經濟體面臨的更廣泛挑戰。東莞是廣東省的出口重鎮。
今年前八個月﹐中國出口額同比增加7.1%﹐遠低於去年全年20.3%的增速。廣東省出口額增加5.9%﹐低於去年的17.3%。
中國經濟出現了自金融危機以來的最急劇放緩﹐而國外需求趨弱也是中國經濟減速的原因之一。今年第二季度﹐中國國內生產總值同比增7.6%。
最新經濟數據表明﹐中國經濟減速的勢頭仍在繼續。中國政府上週四說﹐主要工業企業八月份利潤同比下降6.2%。中國央行前不久向銀行系統注資﹐規模之大前所未有。分析人士說﹐此舉意在支持經濟增長。
工 廠經理和經濟學家們說﹐廣東的出口企業聚集區迄今為止還未出現2008年金融危機後發生的那種大規模裁員現象﹐那種局面當年曾導致約2,000萬農民工返 鄉。在當前這個對中國政府已經堪稱敏感的時刻﹐企業大規模裁員有可能增加社會的不穩定狀況。中國即將進行10年一次的領導層換屆。
Esther Fung/The Wall Street Journal
東莞市裕和制衣有限公司的訂單與一年前相比減少了約50%。
東莞市得利鐘表製品廠有限公司執行董事梁偉浩說﹐去年工資上漲了20%左右。梁偉浩是東莞擁有境外投資者的企業的代表。
大公司都在升級技術﹐以期提高生產率﹐並從規模較小的競爭對手手中奪取業務。
梁偉浩說﹐調整正在進行﹐一些小公司沒有改變戰略的資源﹐大公司則在購買更先進的機器、培訓員工﹐以提高生產率。得利鐘表已經投資購買用於提高生產線產量的設備。
大宗商品價格的上漲也導致成本增加。東莞市協合線材有限公司是一家為家電產品生產零部件的企業﹐老板周熠說﹐銅價上漲削弱了公司的利潤率。周熠說﹐推動銅價走高的是美聯儲(Federal Reserve)為提振美國經濟向金融系統注資的措施。
客戶的付款時間也延長了。國內外都有客戶的周熠增加了拜訪客戶的次數﹐希望說服他們按時付款。他說﹐一般應該是交貨後三個月內打款﹐可有些人要六個月才打款。
周熠說﹐為保持現金流動﹐他動用了自己的個人存款。他說﹐我不想在這個不景氣的時候裁人﹐但如果有人要走﹐我可能也不會找人接替﹔中國小企業的痛苦指數最高。
小企業在用多種多樣的方式過冬。黃四說﹐我們會找朋友借款來升級機器。他說﹐政府出口退稅雖然有一定幫助﹐但作用有限。
匯率風險也在增加。
黃四說﹐風險太高了﹐如果我們接歐元訂單而歐元貶值﹐那麼還沒有開始生產衣服就已經賠了。他說﹐現在制衣企業不敢接10萬到20萬件的歐洲訂單﹐更願意接一兩萬件的訂單。
黃四希望中國消費者進一步填補空缺。他說﹐今年內需提高了10%到20%﹐幫助緩沖了這種痛苦。
Tom Orlik / Esther Fung
China's Provinces Feel Pinch
As global demand for China's exports slows, Huang Si is tightening his belt.The manager of a factory making woolen sweaters in this southern Chinese city says orders are down about 50% from a year ago. Last year, piles of finished clothes spilled out of the storeroom on their way to be shipped. Now it is half empty, employees say. Mr. Huang says he has been forced to let a third of his 150 workers go.
'This is the most difficult year for us since we started operations in 1997,' Mr. Huang says at Dongguan Yuhe Garment Co.'s four-story factory.
The difficulties of factory managers in Dongguan -- a bellwether export town in the southern province of Guangdong -- offer a glimpse of the broader challenges facing the world's No. 2 economy as global demand cools for Chinese-made goods.
China's exports were up 7.1% in the first eight months of this year from a year earlier, slowing sharply from the 20.3% growth logged for all of last year. Guangdong's exports rose 5.9%, down from 17.3% last year.
Fading foreign demand has contributed to the sharpest slowdown in China's economy since the financial crisis, with gross domestic product rising 7.6% in the second quarter from a year earlier.
More-recent economic data suggest that the slowdown continues. The government on Thursday said profits from major industrial companies fell 6.2% in August from a year earlier. China's central bank recently injected a record amount of cash into the banking system, a move that analysts say was intended in part to prop up growth.
Factory managers and economists say Guangdong's export belt so far has avoided the mass layoffs that followed the 2008 financial crisis, which led to a shift home of about 20 million migrant workers. Mass layoffs could increase social instability during what already is a sensitive time for the Chinese government, which is about to make a once-a-decade change in leadership.
Still, the slowdown is compounding problems for Chinese manufacturers, who are also grappling with rising labor costs, a volatile currency and slow payments by customers.
'Wages rose about 20% in the last year' says Eddie Leung, the managing director of watchmaker Dailywin Watch Products Manufacturing Ltd. and a representative for Dongguan companies that have investors abroad.
Larger companies are upgrading technology in an effort to increase productivity and hoping to snap up business from their smaller rivals.
There is a shakeout under way, he says. 'Some small firms don't have the resources to change their strategy, bigger firms are buying better machinery and training their workers to improve productivity.' Dailywin has invested in equipment that raises output on production lines.
Higher commodity prices are also adding to costs. Zhou Yi, the owner of Xiehe Wire Cable, which makes components for household appliances, says that a rise in copper prices has eaten into its margins. Mr. Zhou says the Federal Reserve's move to pump up the U.S. economy by injecting liquidity into the financial system has pushed copper prices higher.
Customers are also taking longer to pay their bills. Mr. Zhou, who has domestic and foreign customers, is traveling more often to clients to persuade them to pay on time. 'Typically, the payment should be done within three months after delivery, some take six months,' he says.
Mr. Zhou says he is digging into his personal savings to preserve cash flow. 'I don't want to fire anyone in this downturn, but if someone leaves, I probably won't be finding a replacement,' he says. 'Small enterprises in China rank highest on the pain index.'
Small companies are responding to the downturn in a variety of ways. 'We'll ask for loans from friends to upgrade our machinery,' says Mr. Huang, the garment maker. Government export-tax rebates have helped to a limited degree, he says.
Currency hazards also are rising.
'It's so risky. If we sign an order in euros, and the euro falls, we lose money without starting to make the garments,' Mr. Huang says. Garment manufacturers are afraid to sign orders of 100,000 to 200,000 pieces from Europe now, he says, preferring orders of 10,000 to 20,000 pieces.
Mr. Huang hopes Chinese consumers will take up more slack. 'Domestic demand is up 10% to 20% this year, so that has helped cushion the pain,' he says.
Tom Orlik / Esther Fung
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